Quick answer
A 13-week recovery cash flow forecast lists expected cash in and cash out for each of the next 13 weeks, starting from today's bank balance. Include only money you're confident of — confirmed insurance, approved grants, realistic trading — and every cost you must pay. The lowest running balance shows your true funding need. Update it weekly, and use it to talk to the ATO, your bank, your landlord and any lender.
Key points
- Start from today's actual bank balance, not last month's accounts.
- Count insurance and grants only when they're confirmed, and on a realistic date.
- The lowest point in the running balance is your funding need.
- Update it every week — recovery plans change fast.
After a crisis, everyone asks you the same question in different words. The insurer asks what the loss of trade will be. The ATO asks what you can pay and when. The bank asks whether you need a repayment pause. A lender asks how much you need and how you’ll repay it. Your own head asks whether the business is going to make it.
A 13-week cash flow forecast answers all of those. It’s not an accounting exercise — it’s a simple table of when money comes in and when it goes out. You can build a useful one in about an hour.
What is a 13-week cash flow forecast?
It’s a week-by-week view of cash for the next quarter. Each column is a week. Rows show money coming in, money going out, and a running bank balance. It uses cash timing — when money actually hits or leaves your account — not when invoices are raised.
Why 13 weeks? It’s long enough to catch a BAS quarter, several pay runs and the typical wait for insurance or grant money, and short enough that you can estimate each week with some confidence.
What do you need before you start?
- Today’s bank balance for every business account
- A list of bills due in the next three months (rent, loans, leases, suppliers, utilities, insurance, subscriptions)
- Payroll amounts and dates, plus super and PAYG withholding
- Your next BAS and any ATO payment plan instalments
- Recent bank statements to estimate normal weekly takings
- Status of any insurance claim, grant or concessional loan application
How do you build it, step by step?
Step 1: Set up the columns
Week 1 starts on the next Monday. Label thirteen columns with the week-starting dates.
Step 2: Opening balance
In the first column, enter today’s combined bank balance. Each later week’s opening balance is the previous week’s closing balance.
Step 3: Cash in
Add a row for each type of incoming cash:
| Row | How to estimate it |
|---|---|
| Trading receipts | Normal weekly takings, reduced for the disruption. Be conservative. |
| Debtor collections | Invoices already raised, on the date you realistically expect payment |
| Insurance — confirmed | Only accepted amounts, on a cautious date |
| Grants — approved | Only approved amounts, on the date the program says it pays |
| Other | Asset sales, owner contributions, concessional loan drawdowns once approved |
Put anything uncertain — a claim not yet accepted, a grant not yet approved — in a separate “maybe” row below the total. You’ll use it later to test scenarios.
Step 4: Cash out
| Row | Notes |
|---|---|
| Wages | Each pay run on its actual date |
| Super and PAYG withholding | On their due dates |
| Rent | Adjust if the landlord has agreed relief |
| Loan and lease repayments | Adjust for any hardship pauses agreed |
| Suppliers | Including any that now want cash on order |
| Repairs and recovery costs | From your quotes, on the dates they’ll be paid |
| Stock | Restocking plan, week by week |
| Utilities, insurance, software | Regular overheads |
| BAS and ATO | Include payment plan instalments |
Step 5: Running balance
For each week: opening balance + cash in − cash out = closing balance.
Step 6: Find the lowest point
Scan the closing balance row. The lowest figure — often somewhere around weeks 4 to 8 in a recovery — is your real funding need. If it’s negative, that’s the gap. Add a buffer for delays, and that’s the amount worth talking about.
Our shutdown cash runway tool does a quick version of this calculation if you want a starting number before building the full forecast.
How should insurance and grants be treated?
This is where most recovery forecasts go wrong. Owners put the full expected claim in week 3 because that’s what they hope for. Then week 3 passes, the claim is still being assessed, and the forecast is useless.
Some rules of thumb:
- Unaccepted claims go in the “maybe” row, not the main forecast.
- Accepted claims go in on a cautious date. The General Insurance Code of Practice generally commits subscribing insurers to a decision within four months of a claim, with updates at least every 20 business days — which tells you a claim can take a while.
- Grants go in only once approved, and on the date the program pays. Many pay on receipts, so you spend first.
- Remember tax. The ATO treats trading stock payouts as assessable, and most business disaster grants are assessable unless they’re on the ATO’s NANE list. Put a row in for the tax you’ll owe later.
What does a recovery forecast look like?
Illustrative example only, using round numbers for a small café closed for three weeks after a storm:
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 | Wk 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening | 18,000 | 9,500 | 2,000 | −6,500 | −4,000 | −1,000 |
| Trading receipts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9,000 | 11,000 | 12,000 |
| Wages | 6,000 | 0 | 6,000 | 0 | 6,000 | 0 |
| Rent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,000 | 0 | 0 |
| Repairs and restock | 2,500 | 7,500 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 2,000 | 2,000 |
| Other overheads | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,000 |
| Closing | 9,500 | 2,000 | −6,500 | −4,000 | −1,000 | 6,000 |
The lowest point is −6,500 in week 3. With a buffer, the café’s funding need is modest and short. That’s a very different conversation from “we need money”.
If your forecast shows a gap and you’d like to talk it through, you can start an enquiry here — there’s no credit check when you first enquire.
How do you use the forecast with other people?
| Who | What to show them |
|---|---|
| ATO | Which weeks you can pay what — supports a deferral or payment plan request |
| Your bank | Why a temporary repayment pause helps and when you’ll resume |
| Landlord | The case for rent relief during closure |
| Insurer | The loss of trade, if you have business interruption cover |
| Financial counsellor | The full picture, so advice is grounded — the Small Business Debt Helpline is 1800 413 828 |
| A lender | The gap, the purpose and how the funding will be repaid |
business.gov.au’s guidance after an emergency suggests negotiating with creditors about loan pauses or interest-only arrangements and chasing outstanding receivables. A forecast makes those conversations concrete.
How often should you update it?
Every week, ideally on the same day. Replace estimates with actuals for the week just gone, roll forward one week, and adjust anything that’s changed — a claim accepted, a supplier asking for cash up front, a reopening date moved.
The first version will be wrong in places. That’s fine. The value is in seeing the shape of the next quarter, and in spotting a problem six weeks away rather than six days away.
What mistakes should you avoid?
- Using profit instead of cash. A sale on 30-day terms isn’t cash this week.
- Forgetting irregular costs. Quarterly BAS, annual insurance, registrations.
- Assuming normal trade on day one of reopening. Customers take time to come back.
- Counting on money that isn’t confirmed. Keep it in the “maybe” row.
- Leaving out the owner. If you need to draw wages to live, include it.
Where do grants and concessional loans fit?
Treat approved grants and concessional loans like confirmed insurance: in the forecast, on the date they’ll really arrive. If you’ve applied but aren’t approved, keep them in the “maybe” row. Our pages on recovery grants and concessional disaster loans explain typical timing and evidence requirements.
When the forecast shows a gap
Sometimes the forecast shows you can get through on your own cash. Sometimes it shows a gap you can’t close in time — and exactly how big it is. Our page on emergency business loans explains the options, and that’s when a conversation makes sense.
Enquiring is free of credit checks; your file is only looked at once you’ve decided to apply. In a crisis you need fewer calls, not more, so your enquiry stays with one team. Someone who understands crisis recovery reads your enquiry and phones you personally.
Be exact about the figure, the reason, your state and any property in the picture; it saves you a second round of questions. Get the conversation started.
Frequently asked questions
Why 13 weeks?
Thirteen weeks is a quarter — long enough to capture a BAS cycle, several payroll runs and most insurance or grant timelines, but short enough to forecast with reasonable accuracy week by week.
Should I include my expected insurance payout?
Only once the claim is accepted, and on a cautious date. Put unconfirmed amounts in a separate 'maybe' row so you can see the forecast with and without them.
What if I don't know when I'll reopen?
Build two versions: a realistic reopening date and a later one. If the later version shows a gap you can't cover, plan for it now.
Do I need accounting software to do this?
No. A spreadsheet or even a sheet of paper works. Your bank statements and a list of bills are the main inputs.
Can I use the forecast to apply for funding?
Yes. A simple forecast showing why you need funding and how it will be repaid makes conversations with lenders, the ATO and your bank much easier.